A Longitudinal Study on Deforestation Trends in Indonesia from 1996 to 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54518/rh.5.3.2025.564Keywords:
Deforestation, Electronic Benefit Transfer, Energy Consumption, Environmental Kuznets CurveAbstract
This study aims to analyse spanning 1996–2022, analyzed deforestation determinants in Indonesia using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to assess short and long-term variable relationships. We focused on GDP per capita, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), population density, and renewable energy consumption. Results support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, showing an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and deforestation. Deforestation initially increased with economic growth but declined after a turning point of USD 2,443.41 million GDP per capita, around 2009–2010. This suggests that as Indonesia developed, environmental awareness and forest conservation efforts increased. Furthermore, population density and renewable energy consumption significantly reduced deforestation, While FDI had an insignificant positive effect, its impact was statistically irrelevant when considering overall market trends. Policy implications highlight the need for stronger forest governance post-economic development era, to ensure sustainable management, combat illegal activities, and mitigate environmental degradation and have turning point, strict regulation of land-based renewable energy projects, and careful monitoring of investments potentially threatening forest sustainability.
Downloads
References
Adila, D., Nuryartono, N., & Oak, M. (2021). The Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation in Indonesia. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 67(2), 3-12.
Ajanaku, B. A., & Collins, A. R. (2021). Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?. Forest Policy and Economics, 2(9),488-499.
Austin, K. G., Schwantes, A., Gu, Y., & Kasibhatla, P. S. (2019). What causes deforestation in Indonesia?. Environmental Research Letters, 14(2), 7-18.
Bortolotti, L., Marson, M., & Saccone, D. (2024). Food and the forest: A spatial analysis on the nexus between foreign direct investment and deforestation. Forest Policy and Economics, 169, 103-113.
Destiartono, M. E. (2023a). Hubungan antara Perdagangan, Investasi, PDB, Korupsi, dan Deforestasi di Asia Tenggara: Menguji Hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Jurnal Wilayah Dan Lingkungan, 11(3), 310–326.
Destiartono, M. E. (2023b). The nexus between urbanization, livestock, and deforestation in Southeast Asia: Evidence from pmg and panel-causality. Barekeng: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika Dan Terapan, 17(1), 43–52.
Doytch, N., Ashraf, A., & Nguyen, C. P. (2024). Foreign direct investment and forest land: a sectoral investigation. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 2(2), 353-364.
Galeana-Pizaña, J. M., Cruz-Bello, G. M., Caudillo-Cos, C. A., & Jiménez-Ortega, A. D. (2024). Impact of deforestation and climate on spatio-temporal spread of dengue fever in Mexico. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 5(1), 679-689.
Gatarić, D., Đerčan, B., Živković, M. B., Ostojić, M., Manojlović, S., Sibinović, M., ... & Lutovac, M. (2022). Can depopulation stop deforestation? the impact of demographic movement on forest cover changes in the settlements of the South Banat District (Serbia). Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10(1), 201-212.
Grieco, E., Vangi, E., Chiti, T., & Collalti, A. (2024). Impacts of deforestation and land use/land cover change on carbon stock dynamics in Jomoro District, Ghana. Journal of Environmental Management, 367, 93-109.
Gultom, J. E. I., & Mumbunan, M. T. (2023). Determinan deforestasi di indonesia. Tri panji, Liberal Arts Journal, 2(1), 48-61.
Kaiho, K. (2023). An animal crisis caused by pollution, deforestation, and warming in the late 21st century and exacerbation by nuclear war. Heliyon, 9(4), 121-131.
Kurniawati, R. (2022). Deforestasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Hipotesis Environmental Kuznet Curve di Pulau Kalimantan dan Pulau Sumatera. Parahyangan Economic Development Review, 1(1), 36-44.
Lunku, H. S., Li, Z., & Tebo, F. E. (2025). Deforestation and economic dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa: Does electricity fluctuations matter on forest conversion? Forest Policy and Economics, 2(1), 174-184.
Nan, Y., Sun, R., Mei, H., Yue, S., & Yuliang, L. (2023). Does renewable energy consumption reduce energy ecological footprint: evidence from China. Environmental Research: Ecology, 2(1), 3-15.
Nguyen, Y., Le, S., Ngo, N., & Nguyen, H. (2023). Impacts of FDI and Environmental Pollution in ASEAN Countries: The Role of Institutions. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(5), 242–250.
Obinna, J. K. (2021). Achieving Sustainable Development Goal two: Establishing the determinants of food security in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 9(1), 9-19.
Dewi, R. U. I., Zuhaiery, A., Sa’diyah, N. H., Rizqiya, T. F., & Nurpratiwi, H. (2023). Harmonisasi Masyarakat Dan Pemerintah Untuk Mengatasi Deforestasi Di Selatan Tulungagung. Dewantara: Jurnal Pendidikan Sosial Humaniora, 2(2), 149-157.
Saka, U. M., Pacheco-Hague, K., Duzgun, S., & Smith, N. (2024). An analysis of the impact of CO2 emissions from deforestation and mining in Madre de Dios, Perú. The Extractive Industries and Society, 3(2), 51-61.
Sohag, K., Gainetdinova, A., & Mariev, O. (2023). Economic growth, institutional quality and deforestation: Evidence from Russia. Forest Policy and Economics, 2(1), 131-141.
Subkhan, M. A., & Hutajulu, D. M. (2023). The analysis of the effect of financial deepening on Indonesia’s economic growth: A longitudinal analysis. Research Horizon, 3(1), 19-35.
Suni, M. A., Muis, H., Arianingsih, I., Misra, M., & Baharuddin, R. F. (2023). Analisis dan Pemodelan Spasial Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Hutan Produksi Terbatas Kecamatan Kulawi Kabupaten Sigi. Jurnal Tanah Dan Sumberdaya Lahan, 10(2), 273–284.
Yameogo, C. E. W. (2021). Globalization, urbanization, and deforestation linkage in Burkina Faso. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(17), 22011-22021.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Umi Khoiriyanah, Shanty Oktavilia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
