The Influence of Macroeconomics on Credit Risk with Bank Size as a Moderating Variable
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54518/rh.6.1.2026.1028Keywords:
Bank Size, BI-Rate, Credit Risk, Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, InflationAbstract
This study is motivated by the vulnerability of regional development banks to credit risk amid macroeconomic fluctuations and the inconsistency of previous research findings. The aims of this study is to analyze the effects of inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rates, and the policy interest rate on credit risk, as well as the moderating role of bank size in 27 regional development banks in Indonesia during the 2020–2024 period. The study employs a causal quantitative approach using a saturated sampling technique (524 observations) and Moderated Regression Analysis. The results show that inflation, gross domestic product, and the policy interest rate have a positive and significant effect on credit risk, while the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect. Bank size is proven to moderate all macroeconomic variables by weakening the effects of inflation, gross domestic product, and the policy interest rate, while strengthening the effect of exchange rates on credit risk. These findings imply that strengthening bank assets and size is a crucial factor in enhancing the resilience of regional development banks in facing economic pressures to maintain credit quality stability.
Downloads
References
Adam, B.A. (2021). Effect of inflation on the loans default rate of commercial banks in Kenya. Kenya: University of Nairobi (Undergraduate thesis).
Ad’hadini, N. D., & Kusumawardhani, A. (2016). Analisis pengaruh bank size, LDR, BOPO, pertumbuhan kredit, dan CAR terhadap nonperforming loan (studi kasus pada bank umum konvensional yang terdaftar di bei tahun 2010-2014). Diponegoro Journal of Management, 5(3), 263-275.
Albra, W., Syamni, G., & Habibie, M. (2018). What is the determinant of non-performing financing in Branch Sharia Regional Bank in Indonesia. In Proceedings of MICoMS 2017 (Vol. 1, pp. 265-271). Leeds: Emerald Publishing Limited.
Astutiningsih, K. W., & Baskara, I. G. K. (2019). Pengaruh Car, dana pihak ketiga, ukuran bank, dan ldr terhadap profitabilitas bank perkreditan rakyat. Bali: Udayana University (Doctoral dissertation).
Bank Indonesia. (2016). BI-Rate. Bank Indonesia, 19 Agustus 2016. Retrieved on September 24, 2025, from https://www.bi.go.id/id/fungsi-utama/moneter/bi-rate/default.aspx. 19 Agustus 2016.
Barus, A. C. (2016). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nonperforming loan pada bank umum di Indonesia. Jurnal Wira Ekonomi Mikroskil, 6(2), 113-122.
Bergh, D. D., Connelly, B. L., Ketchen Jr, D. J., & Shannon, L. M. (2014). Signalling theory and equilibrium in strategic management research: An assessment and a research agenda. Journal of management studies, 51(8), 1334-1360.
Castro, V. (2013). Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI. Economic modelling, 31(6), 672–683.
Chan, Y. S., Greenbaum, S. I., & Thakor, A. V. (2010). Is fairly priced deposit insurance possible?. The journal of finance, 47(1), 227-245.
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Detragiache, E. (1998). The determinants of banking crises in developing and developed countries. Staff papers, 45(1), 81-109.
Djohanputro, B. (2008). Manajemen risiko korporat. Jakarta: Ppm.
Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989). Agency theory: An assessment and review. Academy of management review, 14(1), 57-74.
Falestiya, A., & Arifin, Z. (2024). Pengaruh ukuran bank, makro ekonomi, risiko bank, diversifikasi pendapatan terhadap profitabilitas perbankan di Indonesia. Covalue, 15(4), 73-91.
Ginting, A. M. (2017). Pengaruh makroekonomi terhadap Non-Performing Loan (NPL) perbankan. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 7(2), 159-170.
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (2019). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. In Corporate governance (pp. 77-132). Wales: Gower.
Kasmir. (2015). Pengantar manajemen keuangan (Edisi kedua). Jakarta: Kencana.
Khamisah, N., Nani, D. A., & Ashsifa, I. (2020). Pengaruh Non Performing Loan (NPL), BOPO dan ukuran perusahaan terhadap Return on Assets (ROA) perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Technobiz: International Journal of Business, 3(2), 18–29.
Komariah, E. (2016). Tingkat kesehatan bank umum syariah di Indonesia dari aspek risk profile. Jurnal Online Insan Akuntan, 1(2), 239-260.
Kusmayadi, D., Firmansyah, I., & Badruzaman, J. (2018). The impact of macroeconomic on nonperforming loan: comparison study at conventional and islamic banking. Iqtishadia: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam STAIN Kudus, 10(2), 59-82.
Kusnandar, K., Sucihatiningsih, D., & Guritno, A. (2019). Pengaruh PDRB, inflasi, dan suku bunga terhadap kredit bermasalah perbankan di Jawa Barat. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 22(2), 151–168.
Leka, B., Bajrami, E., & Duci, E. (2019). Key macroeconomic drivers on reducing nonperforming loans in Albania. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 8(2), 88-95.
Linda, A., Niken, R., & Lutfi, A. (2017). Pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap risiko kredit sistem perbankan di Asean 3. Jurnal Ekuilibrium, 1(2), 36-42.
Lubis, D. D., & Mulyana, B. (2021). The macroeconomic effects on non-performing loan and its implication on allowance for impairment losses. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 3(2), 13-22.
Mankiw, N. G. (2006). Principles of economics: Pengantar ekonomi makro (C. Sungkono, Trans.; R. Widyaningrum, Ed.; 3rd ed.). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Margaretha, F., & Kalista, V. (2016). Faktor yang mempengaruhi nonperforming loan pada bank di Indonesia. Jurnal Kesejahteraan Sosial, 3(01), 1-12.
Naibaho, K., & Rahayu, S. M. (2018). Pengaruh GDP, inflasi, BI Rate, nilai tukar terhadap nonperforming loan bank umum konvensional di Indonesia. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 62(2), 85-101.
Ningsih, S., & Dewi, M. W. (2020). Analisis pengaruh rasio NPL, BOPO dan CAR terhadap kinerja keuangan pada bank umum konvensional yang terdaftar di BEI. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Pajak, 21(01), 211-222.
Nurismalatri, N. (2014). Analisis pengaruh makro ekonomi terhadap kredit bermasalah perbankan Indonesia. Jurnal Sekuritas, Saham, Ekonomi Keuangan & Investasi, 1(2), 103–116.
Purba, N. S., & Darmawan, A. (2018). Pengaruh pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto dan inflasi terhadap nonperforming finance bank syariah. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB), 61(2), 172-186.
Putra, I. G. N. M. (2021). Pengaruh risiko kredit terhadap kinerja keuangan bank. Jurnal Mahasiswa Akuntansi Poltekba, 4(3), 199-232.
Rahman, F., & Hamid, M. (2019). Impact of macroeconomic variables on non-performing loan in banking sector of Bangladesh. The Jahangirnagar Journal of Business Studies, 8(1), 157-168.
Riyanto, I. S., & Asakdiyah, S. (2020). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, dan produk domestik bruto terhadap return on asset bank syariah di Indonesia. Jurnal Fokus Manajemen Bisnis, 6(2), 132-143.
Rizal, A., Zulham, T., & Asmawati, A. (2019). Analisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, dan suku bunga terhadap kredit macet di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik Indonesia, 6(1), 1-16.
Sefriyani, Y., & Khoirudin, R. (2021). Analisis non-performing loan KPR terhadap kesehatan bank. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Sosial, 10(1), 19-29.
Simons, D., & Rolwes, F. (2009). Macroeconomic default modeling and stress testing. International Journal of Central Banking, 5(3), 301-311.
Sinaga, J. S., Muda, I., & Silalahi, A. S. (2020). The effect of BI rate, exchange rate, inflation and third-party fund (DPK) on credit distribution and its impact on non performing loan (NPL) on XYZ commercial segment bank. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance, 8(3), 55-64.
Sugiarso, F., & Setiyono, B. (2024). Pengaruh BI 7-day reverse repo rate (BI7DRR) terhadap pertumbuhan kredit dan non-performing loan bank umum di indonesia. Yogyakarta: Universitas Gadjah Mada (Undergraduate thesis).
Sugiyono. (2019). Metode penelitian kulitatif, kuantitatif. edisi revisi. Alfabeta. Bandung.
Sukesi, M. (2019). Pengaruh gross domestic product (GDP), inflasi, bi rate, dan nilai tukar terhadap non-performing loan (NPL). Magelang: Universitas Muhammadiyah Magelang (Undergraduate thesis).
Syahid, D. C. N. (2016). Pengaruh faktor eksternal dan internal terhadap kredit bermasalah serta dampaknya terhadap Cadangan Kerugian Penurunan Nilai menurut PSAK 55. Perbanas Review, 2(1), 24-35.
Szarowska, I. (2018). Effect of macroeconomic determinants on non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 11(1), 20-35.
Tandeas, F., & Setyawan, A. (2024). Pengaruh ukuran bank, kredit, kredit bermasalah, modal dan produk domestik bruto terhadap pengambilan risiko bank. Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 8(3), 303-25.
Tarchouna, A., Jarraya, B., & Bouri, A. (2022). Do board characteristics and ownership structure matter for bank non-performing loans? Empirical evidence from US commercial banks. Journal of Management and Governance, 26(2), 479-518.
Zeng, S. (2012). Bank non-performing loans (NPLS): A dynamic model and analysis in China. Modern Economy, 3(1), 100-110.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Muhammad Rofi Fariabi, Ikhsan Budi Riharjo
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
